000
AXNT20 KNHC 251010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Dec 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 06N05W and continues southwestward to 04N15W. The 
ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 02N39W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 01N to 06N and between 10W and 28W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered over the eastern United States supports 
gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, and slight seas
of 2-5 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate 
seas through late week. Winds could increase some late Fri into 
Sat over the eastern Gulf as high pressure builds south from the 
SE United States. Conditions should quiet down again by Sun as 
high pressure ridging moves over the Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are over the SW Caribbean, where seas are 
in the 6-8 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are over 
the central Caribbean with moderate winds over the remainder of 
the Caribbean waters, with seas in the 5-6 ft range.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure to the
north and low pressure to the south will continue to support moderate
to fresh winds over the basin through Wed night, with pulsing 
fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia. Winds will then diminish 
only slightly for Thu into the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 mb low is centered N of the area near 33N75W. A stationary
front extends S from the low to 25N77W to 25N80W. Moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas are noted N of 28N. To the E, a 
cold front is analyzed from 31N40W to 21N64W, then it transitions 
to stationary to 20N72W. Fresh winds and rough seas prevail W of
this front, mainly between 42W and 71W. East of the frontal
boundary, a 1009 mb low is analyzed near 29N17W. A surface trough
is from 14N16W to beyond 31N17W. Gentle to moderate winds and 
seas of 5-8 ft prevail near the low/trough. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front near Hispaniola will
dissipate today. High pressure behind the central Atlantic cold front
will continue to bring fresh winds across the southeast Bahamas 
and rough seas extending eastward, through today. A cold front 
will move south of 31N by early Thu, then extend from 31N57W to 
central Florida Thu evening, and from 23N55W to 21N65W to the 
central Bahamas by Sat morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds 
and large N swell are expected to come in behind the front, 
especially for areas to the east of 70W.


$$
ERA