000 AXNT20 KNHC 251624 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Dec 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1624 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 04N10W and continues westward to 04N15W. The ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 03N42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N and between the west coast of Africa and 26W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A pre-frontal trough is moving across the NW Gulf producing a line of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection north of 26.5N west of 93.5W. Buoys near the area recorded winds near- gale, gusty to gale force. Another trough is producing isolated showers and thunderstorms across the central Gulf and the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, high pressure centered over the eastern United States supports moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds east of 89W. While west of 89W gentle to moderate SE to S winds prevail. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern United States will maintain mostly moderate southeast winds and slight to moderate seas through early Fri, then winds may increase some late Fri into Sat over the eastern Gulf as high pressure builds southward from the southeastern United States and a weak cold front approaches eastern Texas. Relatively calm conditions are expected Sun and Sun night as the weak cold front moves across the Gulf, followed by weak high pressure that becomes established over the NW Gulf at that time. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough over the NW Caribbean is producing scattered moderate convection from 18.5N to 22N between 79W and 84W. Another area of isolated moderate convection is found east and north of Jamaica. The eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough is supporting numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are over the SW Caribbean, where seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are over the central Caribbean with moderate winds over the remainder of the Caribbean waters, with seas in the 5-6 ft range. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south will continue to support moderate to fresh trades across the basin through tonight, with pulsing fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia. Winds will then diminish only slightly starting Thu and through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1015 mb low is centered N of the area near 33N73W. A cold front extends S from the low to 28N75W, then it transitions to a stationary dissipating front to 24N79W. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are noted N of 29N. To the E, a cold front is analyzed from 31N38W to 23N52W. A line of showers and thunderstorms is depicted along and 140 nm ahead of the front. Strong winds with seas 10 to 13 ft prevail W of this front north of 30N between 41N and 47.5W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail north of 24N mainly between 43W and 62W. East of the frontal boundary, a 1014 mb low is analyzed near 30N18W. A surface trough is from 22N18W to the 1014 mb low pressure. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-8 ft prevail near the low/trough. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from a 1015 mb low near 33N73W southwestward to 28N75W, where it transitions to a dissipating stationary front to the central Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the front and high pressure to the east will generally maintain fresh winds and rough seas over the waters S of 24N and west of 65W through early Thu afternoon. The cold front will reach from near 31N69W to 28N75W by late Thu night, at which time a stronger cold front is expected to be just to its N. This front will quickly push S reaching from near 31N57W to central Florida by Thu evening, from near 28N55W to the SE waters by Fri evening, with its southern portion weakening through late Sat and while the rest of the front moves well to the E of 55W. Fresh to strong northerly winds and large N swell are expected to follow in behind the front starting Fri mainly E of about 70W. $$ KRV