000
AXNT20 KNHC 252046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Dec 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 07N11W and continues westward to 04N18W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N18W to 01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 01N to 07N and between 12W and 23W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-5 ft prevail across the
Gulf of Mexico. 

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern United
States will maintain mostly moderate southeast winds and slight
to moderate seas through early Fri, then winds may increase some
late Fri into Sat over the eastern Gulf as high pressure builds
southward from the southeastern United States, and a weak cold
front approaches eastern Texas. Relatively calm conditions are
expected Sun and Sun night as the weak cold front moves across
the Gulf, followed by weak high pressure that becomes established
over the NW Gulf at that time. Fresh southerly winds are 
expected to become established in the western Gulf Mon and Mon 
night in response to a frontal system that approaches E Texas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the central Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere across the Caribbean
waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in the central Caribbean, and
4-5 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure to 
the north and low pressure to the south will allow for moderate to
fresh trades across the basin through tonight, with pulsing fresh
to strong winds offshore Colombia. Winds will then diminish only 
slightly starting Thu and into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N71W southwestward to 28N73W, where 
it transitions to a weakening stationary front to 27N77W. Farther
east, a 1021 mb high is centered near 32N53W, with a ridge
extending SW to near 28N69W. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the high and ridge. Gentle to moderate winds are
elsewhere W of 50W. A cold front enters the waters near 31N38W and
extends to 23N52W. The pressure gradient between the front and the
area of high pressure is supporting fresh to strong winds W of the
front and N of 28N. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range over these
waters. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere W of the front to 
50W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the 
discussion waters. Seas of 4-8 ft prevail elsewhere across the 
discussion waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from near 
31N69W to 28N75W by late Thu night, at which time a stronger cold 
front is expected to be just to its north. This front will quickly
push southward reaching from near 31N57W to central Florida by 
Thu evening, and from near 28N55W to the southeastern waters by 
Fri evening with its southern portion weakening through late Sat 
and while the rest of the front moves well to the E of 55W. Fresh 
to strong northerly winds and large N swell are expected to follow
in behind the front on Fri mainly E of about 70W. On Mon and Mon 
night these winds will be affecting the northeast part of the 
area, however, rough seas are expected to cover a good portion of 
the eastern half of the area.

$$
AL