000 AXNT20 KNHC 260605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Dec 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia close to 06N10W, to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W, to 01N29W 02N38W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from: 03N northward between 06W and 08W; from 03N to 06N between 14W and 21W; and from 05N to 07N between 30W and 33W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is within 90 nm of the U.S.A. Gulf coast states, between the Florida Panhandle and the middle Texas Gulf coast. Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the surface trough. An inland Texas coastal plains stationary front is from 30N southward. Precipitation: scattered moderate is from 27N southward. Slight to moderate seas span the entire area. Mostly fresh to some strong surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 90W eastward. Moderate to fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure centered over the eastern United States will maintain mostly moderate southeast winds and slight to moderate seas through early Fri, then winds may increase some late Fri into Sat over the eastern Gulf as high pressure builds southward from the southeastern United States, and a weak cold front approaches eastern Texas. Relatively calm conditions are expected on Sun as the weak cold front moves across the Gulf, followed by weak high pressure that becomes established over the NW Gulf at that time. Fresh southerly winds are expected to become established in the western Gulf on Mon in response to a frontal system that approaches E Texas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is along 15N81W 17N85W, to Belize close to 17N89W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is between Jamaica and 85W from 13N northward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from Hispaniola westward. Strong NE to E winds, and moderate seas, are forecast to be from 20N to 21N between 72W and 74W, for the next 12 hours or so. Strong NE to E winds, and moderate seas, are from 10N to 13N between 69W and 74W, including in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to moderate surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 17N northward from the Windward Passage westward. Fresh to moderate NE winds are elsewhere from 80W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are from 17N southward from 80W westward. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet between the Mona Passage and 80W. Slight to moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 76W in Colombia, beyond Panama and southern Costa Rica, into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N southward from 75W westward. The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south will allow for moderate to fresh trades across the basin through Thu morning, with pulsing fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia. Winds will then diminish slightly and prevail trough early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N69W, to the NW Bahamas. Moderate to fresh surface cyclonic wind flow is moving around the cold front from the front northward between 66W and 73W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 73W westward. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 40W westward, except for the rough seas that are from 23N northward between 38W and 54W. The 24-hour forecast consists of: winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas in NE swell, from 30N northward between 78W and 81W. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 26/0000 UTC, are: 0.65 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 20N to 23N between 73W and SE Cuba A stationary front extends from a 1015 mb 31N38W low pressure center, to 25N45W, and to 23N53W. A surface trough is just to the south of the southernmost point of the stationary front, along 49W/51W from 12N to 21N. Strong NE to E winds are from 29N northward between 42W and 50W. Rough seas are from 23N northward between 38W and 54W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 330 nm to the SE of the stationary front from 20N northward, and within 60 nm to the NW of the front from 26N to 27N. A N-to-S oriented surface trough is along 11N16W 20N16W 26N17W, to a 1014 mb 30N19W low pressure center, to 33N21W. Fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas, are from 30N northward from the surface trough eastward for about 180 nm. Fresh NE winds, and moderate to rough seas, are from 25N to 30N between the surface trough and 26W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from the northern coast of Hispaniola to the SE Bahamas between 71W and 73W. Fresh NE winds are from 05N to 15N between 20W and 35W. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds are: from 10N southward between 35W and 46W, from 27N southward between 46W and 60W, and from 26N southward from 60W westward. Mostly moderate to some fresh SE winds are from 10N to 18N between 35W and 44W. Moderate or slower surface anticyclonic wind flow is elsewhere from 15N northward from 40W eastward. Moderate or slower winds, and moderate seas, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from 31N69W southwestward to 26N77W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 7 ft are noted W of the front. The cold front will reach from near 31N69W to 28N75W by late Thu night, at which time a stronger cold front is expected to be just to its north. This front will quickly push southward reaching from near 31N57W to central Florida by Thu evening, and from near 28N55W to the southeastern waters by Fri evening with its southern portion weakening through late Sat and while the rest of the front moves well to the E of 55W. Fresh to strong northerly winds and large N swell are expected to follow in behind the front on Fri mainly E of about 70W. On Mon and Mon night these winds will be affecting the northeast part of the area, however, rough seas are expected to cover a good portion of the eastern half of the area. $$ mt/era