000 AXNT20 KNHC 262106 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Dec 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A cold front extends from 31N61W southwestward to 28N68W. The front will shift eastward with a large area of near- gale to gale- force winds forecast to develop behind the front from Sat into Sun morning. Rough to very rough seas will develop with this area of gale- force winds. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues westward to 05N10W. The ITCZ extends from 05N10W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 06N and between 17W and 28W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh winds are over the far NW Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds generally prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range, reaching 5 ft over the far NW Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern United States will maintain mostly moderate southeast winds and slight to moderate seas through early Fri, then winds may increase some late Fri into Sat over the eastern Gulf as high pressure builds southward from the southeastern United States, and a weak cold front approaches eastern Texas. Relatively calm conditions are expected on Sun as the weak cold front moves across the Gulf, followed by weak high pressure that becomes established over the NW Gulf at that time. Fresh southerly winds are expected to developed in the western Gulf on Mon and Mon night in response to a stronger front that approaches E Texas. That front is expected to move across the basin Tue and Tue night, followed by fresh northerly winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 4-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure to the south will generally allow for moderate to fresh trades across the basin through late Sun night. Trades weaken to light to gentle speeds over the western half of the basin Mon and Mon night, then increase back to moderate speeds afterwards. Winds will pulse at fresh to strong speeds in the Windward Passage tonight. After tonight, these winds will be mostly at fresh speeds on Fri, then at fresh to strong speeds through early Sun. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are expected south of Hispaniola to near 16N Sat night through early Sun afternoon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a gale warning expected from Sat into Sun morning. A cold front extends from 31N61W to 28N68W where it becomes stationary to the northern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-8 ft, prevail west of the front. A weak 1019 mb high is centered near 26N59W, with light to gentle winds in the vicinity of the high. Two 1015 mb low pressure centers are found east of the high, one centered near 28N52W, and one near 30.5N38W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of these low pressure centers. Aside from the marine conditions previously mentioned, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-8 ft, prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a gale warning is in effect for the NE forecast waters from Sat into Sun morning. Currently, a cold front extends from 31N61W southwestward to 28N68W. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds are N of the front. The cold front will quickly reach from near 31N58W to 26N68W by late tonight, and from near 28N55W to the southeastern waters by Fri evening, with its southern portion weakening through late Sat while the remainder of the front moves well to the E of 55W. Fresh to strong northerly winds and large N swell are expected to follow in behind the front on Fri mainly E of about 70W. With the expected gale conditions, seas will build to a rough to very rough state. These seas will shift E of 55W late Sun night, however, rough seas are expected to linger over a good portion of the eastern half of the area Mon and Mon night before subsiding to a moderate state on Tue. $$ AL