137 AXNT20 KNHC 270614 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Dec 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... A cold front passes through 31N57W, to 30N60W 27N70W. A stationary front continues from 27N70W, to 28N80W. A surface trough is within 135 nm to the southeast and to the south of the frontal boundary. A 1017 mb low pressure center is close to 28N52W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and moderate to rough seas, are from the frontal boundary northward. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate isolated strong is within 600 nm to the southeast of the cold front from 24N63W northeastward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 27/0000 UTC, are: 0.17 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. The 48-hour forecast, starting on Saturday night, consists of: NW to N gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas in NW to N swell, from 27N to 30N between 52W and 55W. Expect also: strong to near gale-force N winds, and rough seas, elsewhere from 20N northward between 45W and 66W. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border of Ghana and Ivory Coast, to 03N10W and 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W, to 05N26W, 02N32W 01N39W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate isolated strong is from 08N southward between 10W and 40W. ..GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh winds are in the far NW Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds generally prevailing elsewhere. Seas are ranging from 2 feet to 4 feet. The sea heights reach 5 feet in the far NW Gulf. High pressure over the Carolinas will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds and seas to 6 ft across the northern Gulf through Fri morning. These winds and seas will diminish through late Fri as the high pressure shifts eastward, ahead of developing low pressure over the southern Plains. An associated cold front will enter the northwest Gulf Sat night, reach from near Panama City, Florida to the central Gulf, to Tampico by late Sun, before stalling and dissipating across the central Gulf Mon. Looking ahead, a second stronger cold front may move off the Texas coast Tue morning, and move into the central Gulf through Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The sea heights are 6 feet from 17N, and fresh to strong NE to E winds, are from 18N southward between 70W and 80W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet in much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Some exceptions are for slight seas in the coastal waters of Honduras and Nicaragua. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE to E winds are elsewhere from 70W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 75W in Colombia, beyond Panama and southern Costa Rica, into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate to locally strong is from the Windward Passage westward. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure to the south will generally allow for moderate to fresh trades across the basin through late Sun night. Winds will diminish over the western half of the basin Mon and Mon night, then increase back to moderate speeds afterwards. Winds will pulse at fresh to strong speeds in the Windward Passage tonight. After tonight, these winds will be mostly at fresh speeds on Fri, then at fresh to strong speeds through early Sun. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are expected south of Hispaniola to near 16N Sat night through early Sun afternoon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning that is expected for Saturday night. A stationary front extends from a 1015 mb 32N37W low pressure center, to 25N45W, and to 19N54W. A surface trough is just to the south of the southernmost point of the stationary front, along 48W/49W from 08N to 19N. Fresh SE winds are within 420 nm to the east of the stationary front from 28N northward. Rough seas are from 20N northward between 40W and 50W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 20N northward between 30W and 50W. A 1018 mb low pressure center is close to 29N17W. One part of a surface trough extends from the 1018 mb low pressure center, beyond 31N17W. Another part of the trough extends southward from the 1018 mb low pressure center, to 25N14W 17N14W 10N15W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are from 30N northward from 20W eastward. Moderate seas are from 40W eastward. Fresh NE winds are from the ITCZ to 17N from 30W eastward. A cold front extending from 31N57W to northern Bahamas will shift eastward through Sun, and merge with developing low pressure east of the region near 28N52W. This pattern will support increasing winds and rough seas mainly east of 65W through early next week, with gale force winds expected near 55W north of 27N Sat night. These winds and seas will shift east of 55W through late Mon as the front and low pressure shift eastward. Looking ahead, expect increasing southerly winds and building seas off northeast Florida ahead of cold front approaching the region over the southeast United States. $$ mt/ec