771 AXNT20 KNHC 271039 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Dec 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A cold front extending from 31N56W to the northern Bahamas will shift eastward through Sun, and merge with developing low pressure east of the region near 28N52W. This pattern will support increasing winds and rough seas mainly north of 22N between 45W and 65W Fri night through Sat night, with gale conditions west of the low pressure late Saturday from 28N to 30N between 50W and 55W. Seas in this area will be 8 to 16 ft, with the highest seas just west of the low center. The low pressure deepen into an occluded system and lift northeastward into the north central Atlantic Sun through Tue. Fresh to strong winds along with large swell generated from the event will persist across the waters north of 20N between 25W and 55W through mid week. For more details, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border of Ghana and Ivory Coast to 05N15W. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 05N25W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 02N to 08N between 20W and 30W. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far southwest Caribbean from the Panama/Costa Rica border to the central coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active along the monsoon trough. ..GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near a cold front along the Texas coast. Farther east, a weak ridge extends from the Carolinas to the southwest Gulf. This pattern is support moderate to fresh SE to S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas over the northern Gulf, and gentle to moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish through the afternoon as the high pressure shifts eastward, ahead of developing low pressure over the southern Plains. An associated cold front will enter the northwest Gulf Sat night, and reach from near Panama City, Florida to the central Gulf, to Tampico by late Sun. The front will stall and dissipate across the central Gulf Mon. Looking ahead, a second stronger cold front may move off the Texas coast Tue morning, and move into the central Gulf through Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting fresh winds are noted across the Windward Passage and off Colombia, and gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the central Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the high pressure will continue building over the western Atlantic through Sat night and will support fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola, and moderate to fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean. These winds and seas will diminish early next week. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase across the central Caribbean by mid week as high pressure builds again north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about the gale warning for late Saturday. A cold front extends from the north central Atlantic through 31N55W to 27N70W, where it continues westward to Jupiter Inlet, Florida as a weak stationary front. Moderate to fresh NE to E wind and 6 to 9 ft are note north of the front. Moderate NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are note south of the front, west of 60W. To the east of the front, recent scatterometer satellite data indicated broad low pressure near 28N52W, with an estimated pressure of 1015 mb. Farther east, another stationary front reaching from 1015 mb low pressure near 23N37W to 19N54W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft in N to NE swell dominate the waters west of 35W. East of 35W, weak 1018 mb low pressure is evident near the Canary Islands. Fresh NE winds and 6 ft seas are noted off Senegal, and moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere east of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from 31N56W to Jupiter Inlet will shift eastward through Sun, and merge with the developing low pressure near 28N52W. As mentioned in the Special Features section, this pattern will support increasing winds and rough seas mainly east of 65W through early next week, with gale force winds expected near 55W north of 27N Sat night. These winds and seas will shift east of 55W through late Mon as the front and low pressure shift eastward. Looking ahead, expect increasing southerly winds and building seas off northeast Florida ahead of cold front approaching the region over the southeast United States. $$ Christensen