144 AXNT20 KNHC 280602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Dec 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, AND SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT... A 1008 mb low pressure center is close to 31N57W. A cold front extends from the low pressure center, to 23N60W 22N67W. A surface trough is along 32N45W 28N51W. Expect for the next 18 hours or so: strong to near gale-force N winds, and rough seas, from 24N northward between 54W and 71W. Expect from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night: the 1003 mb low pressure center is forecast to be close to 29N53W. Expect for the next 18 hours or so: gale-force N winds, and rough to very rough seas, from 28N northward between 53W and 56W. Expect: strong to near gale-force winds, and rough seas, elsewhere from 22N northward between 38W and 65W. Expect also: winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas in N to NE swell, in the remainder of the area that is from 20N northward between 58W and 72W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 330 nm to the east of the 1008 mb low pressure center and the cold front, from 25N northward. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia close to 06N10W, to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W, to 02N28W 01N36W 04N37W 05N41W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N southward between 10W and 51W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the north central Gulf, to the middle Texas Gulf coast. Patchy fog is in the north central Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds are in the eastern half of the area. Moderate SE winds are elsewhere. Slight seas cover the entire Gulf of Mexico. Weak ridging extending from the northwest Atlantic to the northern Gulf is maintaining mostly gentle to moderate SE breezes and slight to moderate seas across the basin. Patchy fog is being reported over the north-central Gulf. Winds and seas will increase across the Gulf Sat ahead of a weak cold front that will move off the Texas coast Sat night. The front will reach from northeast Gulf to the west-central Gulf by Sun evening, then stall and dissipate through Mon ahead of a stronger front moving through the southern Plains. Looking ahead, this second front will move into the northwest Gulf Tue morning and reach the southeast Gulf by Wed night, followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas, especially over the far southwest Gulf along the coast of Mexico. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Slight to moderate seas are in the central one-third of the area. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds span the entire area. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail across central and eastern portions of the basin this weekend. The strengthening pressure gradient between a building ridge in the western Atlantic, strengthening low pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure south of the basin will promote locally strong NE winds through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola tonight through Sun morning. These winds will diminish early next week as the high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. Looking ahead, building high pressure north of the area will support increasing winds and seas across the basin by the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about an upcoming gale-force wind event, and a significant swell event, that are forecast to begin on Saturday afternoon. A dissipating stationary front is along 31N37W 22N48W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 19N northward between 30W and 50W. Fresh NE winds are within 330 nm on either side of the line 18N17W 17N21W 09N30W 05N41W 04N47W. Fresh cyclonic surface wind flow is from 29N northward from 30W eastward. Moderate to fresh SE winds are from 23N northward between 30W and 36W. Moderate or slower winds, and moderate seas, cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A 1008 mb low centered near 30N57W will strengthen and move eastward this weekend. A wide swath of fresh to strong N to NW winds will occur surrounding the low, with these winds occurring north of 25N between 55W and 68W by this evening, and north of 21N between 55W and 65W by Sat morning. Gale force winds are expected Sat afternoon into very early Sun north of 27N near 55W. Rough seas will accompany this system, and seas in excess of 12 ft will occur near the strong winds. These winds and seas will shift east of 55W through late Mon as the low pressure drifts eastward. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will prevail north of the Greater Antilles and west of the low pressure system this weekend, along the periphery of high pressure moving off the coast of the United States. Looking ahead, expect increasing S to SE winds and building seas off northeast Florida late Sat through Sun night ahead of cold front approaching the region over the southeastern United States. $$ mt/ec