000 AXNT20 KNHC 281031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Dec 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A 1006 mb low centered near 29N55W will deepen and move eastward through Sun, supporting gale force winds and very rough seas on the western side of the low within 120 nm of the center today. Strong to near gale- force winds with rough seas and large swell of 12 to 15 ft will cover the waters north of 19N and between 45W and 70W through Mon. Expect fresh to strong winds and rough seas with large swell of 8 to 12 ft north of 22N between 25W and 55W Tue into Wed as the low lifts to the northeast of the area. For more details, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia close to 06N10W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 02N30W to 06N40W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active within 180 nm north of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the north central Gulf, to the middle Texas Gulf coast. Patchy fog is in the north central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the coastal waters from western Florida to southeast Louisiana. South of ridge, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over the Straits of Florida and southeast Gulf. Moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, winds and seas will increase later today across the Gulf ahead of a weak cold front that will move off the Texas coast tonight. The front will reach from northeast Gulf to the west- central Gulf by Sun evening, then stall and dissipate through Mon ahead of a stronger front moving through the southern Plains. Looking ahead, this second front will move into the northwest Gulf Tue morning and reach the southeast Gulf by Wed night, followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas, especially over the far southwest Gulf along the coast of Mexico. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas persist across the Windward Passage, south of high pressure over the northwest Atlantic. Moderate to occasionally fresh winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing over the far southwest Caribbean, from Colombia to Nicaragua, and north of eastern Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail across central and eastern portions of the basin through Sun. The strengthening pressure gradient between a building ridge in the western Atlantic, deepening low pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure south of the basin will promote locally strong NE winds through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola tonight through Sun morning. These winds will diminish early next week as the high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. Looking ahead, building high pressure north of the area will support increasing winds and seas across the basin by the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about an upcoming gale event that is forecast to begin this afternoon. A cold front extends from the low pressure to near 21N67W. Aside from the conditions mentioned in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas follow the front across the waters north of 20N and west of 60W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 5 ft seas are evident elsewhere west of 40W. East of 40W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft are noted. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds with rough seas and large swell will cover the waters north of 19N and west of 70W by tonight. Winds and seas will diminish east of 55W as the low pressure lifts to the northeast of the area through late Mon. Looking ahead, southerly winds will increase off NE Florida Tue ahead of a cold front moving off the coast Tue night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Wed night. $$ Christensen