943 AXNT20 KNHC 282351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Dec 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A 1002 mb low centered near 28N52W will intensify and move eastward through Sun, supporting gale force winds and very rough seas on the western side of the low this evening. Gale-force winds likely extend up to 250 NM W of the low center. Strong to near gale- force winds and rough seas of 12 to 16 ft will cover the waters north of 21N and between 35W and 65W through Mon. Expect fresh to strong winds and rough seas with large swell of 8 to 12 ft north of 15N between 25W and 55W Tue into Wed as the low lifts to the northeast of the area. For more details, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coastal plains of Liberia near 05N10W and continues westward to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 01N to 08N between 26W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the north-central Gulf north of 28N between 85W and 95W, associated with a strong low pressure system moving through the southern United States. Upper-level divergence is also causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to form in the SE Gulf and the Florida Straits. Outside of convection, surface ridging prevails across the Gulf, driving moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft across much of the basin. For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure over the NE Gulf will shift eastward through Sun as a weakening cold front moves into the western Gulf tonight. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds will occur ahead of the front across the northern half of the Gulf, with winds turning to the SW to W behind the front. The front will slowly progress southeastward through Sun before stalling over central Florida through the central Gulf on Mon, and eventually dissipate. A second, stronger cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Tue morning and move southeastward through Wed night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will occur along and behind this front, with locally strong N winds occurring the southwestern Gulf offshore of Tampico and Veracruz late Wed into Thu. Locally rough seas will be possible near the strong winds in the western basin Wed night. Moderate to fresh NE winds will prevail over much of the basin on Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring through the Windward and Mona Passages, as well as downwind of Cuba as a strong pressure gradient between high pressure in the western Atlantic and low pressure in the south-central Caribbean prevails. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are noted through the rest of the basin. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing near the eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon trough, extending from the western through south-central Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between building high pressure in the western Atlantic and persistent low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean will continue to induce fresh to strong NE winds through the Windward Passage and downwind of Hispaniola through Sun evening. Elsewhere, moderate trades will prevail over central and eastern portions of the basin through the middle of next week, with light to gentle winds expected in the northwestern Caribbean. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds offshore of Venezuela and Colombia each night through late next week. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh NE winds will develop by the middle of next week as a cold front approaches the basin from the northwest. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about an ongoing Gale Warning and significant swell event in the central Atlantic. A cold front extends from 29N48W southwestward into the northern Caribbean, associated with the strong low pressure system in the central Atlantic. Fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted for most areas north of 18N and west of the area of strong winds directly associated with the low pressure system. Moderate to locally strong convection is noted to the east of the low center, generally north of 22N between 30W and 55W. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are likely near the strongest convection. South of 18N and west of 40W, light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. East of 40W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted. For the forecast west of 55W, the strong low pressure system centered near 28N52W will intensify and move eastward through Sun. The associated wind field, consisting of strong to gale-force winds, will continue to impact the eastern half of the offshore zones through Sun. Rough to very rough seas will impact the waters east of about 68W through tonight, then shift to east of 66W Sun and to east of 60W Mon. The low pressure will track to the northeast Sun through Mon night, with its associated wind and sea conditions shifting E of 55W. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong SE winds will occur tonight into early Mon off the coast of Florida and the Bahamas as the pressure gradient increases between high pressure in the western Atlantic and strengthening low pressure over the eastern United States. S to SW winds will strengthen again by midweek over the same area ahead of an approaching strong cold front. The front is expected to move off the southeastern United States coast late Tue night, reach from near 31N70W to 28N73W to near the central Bahamas by Wed night and from near 31N60W to 25N68W and stationary to near eastern Cuba by late Thu. Fresh W to NW winds will follow this front north of about 28N through Wed night. Another cold front will move into the northwest part of the area Thu and Thu night, followed by moderate to fresh NW to N winds. $$ ADAMS