000 AXNT20 KNHC 290919 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Dec 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A 1001 mb low centered near 27N50W will move eastward through tonight, supporting near- gale force winds and rough to very rough seas of 12 to 17 ft covering the waters north of 20N and between 35W and 65W through Mon, primarily in northerly swell. In addition, expect fresh to strong winds and rough seas with large swell of 8 to 12 ft north of 15N between 25W and 55W Tue into Wed as the low lifts to the northeast of the area. The large swell may create hazardous rip current conditions for Puerto Rico and other areas in the northern Leeward Islands. Refer to local weather advisories for more information. For more details on the marine conditions, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coastal plains of Liberia near 05N09W and continues westward to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 02N45W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 00N to 03N between 06W and 12W, and from 00N to 05N between 30W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along the coast from southeast Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, ahead of a cold front moving through the northwest Gulf. A few showers and thunderstorms are also active across the eastern Gulf, where moderate to fresh SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted. Moderate to fresh SW winds and 3 to 5 ft are noted ahead of the front over the northwest Gulf. Gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will reach from northeast Gulf to the west- central Gulf by this evening, then stall and dissipate through Mon ahead of a stronger front moving through the southern Plains. Looking ahead, this second front will move into the northwest Gulf Tue, and reach the southeast Gulf by Thu. Fresh winds and building seas will follow the front, with strong winds in the far southwest Gulf along the coast of Mexico. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring through the Windward and Mona Passages, as well as downwind of Cuba as a strong pressure gradient between high pressure in the western Atlantic and low pressure in the south-central Caribbean prevails. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted through the rest of the basin. Scattered thunderstorms are active over the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish early in the week as the high pressure shifts eastward. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase across the central Caribbean by mid week as high pressure builds again north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about a significant swell event in the central Atlantic. The two main weather features over the northwest Atlantic are the 1001 mb low pressure near 27N50W, and 1028 mb high pressure centered to the northwest of the low pressure near 36N67W. The gradient between these features is supporting the strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas described in the Special Features section, encompassing the area north of 20N between 35W and 70W. Fresh SE winds are evident across the Bahamas toward the northeast coast of Florida, between the ridge axis and lower pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley. Moderate NE to E winds are noted elsewhere west of 70W, within the ridge axis, with 5 to 7 ft seas west of 70W. Gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas in N swell are noted over the tropical Atlantic south of 20N and west of 35W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted east of 35W. Forecast for west of 55W, 1001 mb low pressure persists east of the area near 27N50W. Strong to near-gale force winds along with very rough seas accompany the low over the waters from 22N to 30N and east of 65W through today as the low moves slowly eastward. In addition, large northerly swell of 8 to 12 ft will continue elsewhere east of 70W, before subsiding below 8 ft through Mon. Farther west, fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate to rough seas will persist off northeast Florida through tonight, ahead of a cold front that will move off the coast Mon. The front will stall weaken from 31N75W to Cape Canaveral, Florida Mon night, then dissipate as it shifts northward Tue. Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will persist off northeast Florida Tue, ahead of another front expected to move off the coast late Tue night. The second front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Wed night into early Thu morning. $$ Christensen