000 AXNT20 KNHC 300440 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Dec 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A 999 mb low centered near 29N46W will move eastward through Mon, supporting near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas of 12 to 18 ft covering the waters north of 18N between 30W and 60W. In addition, northerly swell of 8 to 12 ft expands beyond the strong winds and will cover the area north of 14N between 25W and 70W. The low pressure lifts north of the area through Tue, leaving an area of fresh to strong SW and 10 to 13 ft north of 24N between 25W and 45W, and linger 8 to 10 ft swell north of 20N between 20W and 50W. These winds and seas diminish south of 30N through Wed. The large swell may create hazardous rip current conditions for Puerto Rico and other areas in the northern Leeward Islands. Refer to local weather advisories for more information. For more details on the marine conditions, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 02N30W to 04N35W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 02N to 06N between 35W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend area in the northeast Gulf to southwest Gulf near 21.5N94.5W. Scattered shower and thunderstorms are active over central Florida, and off Tampa Bay, but this activity is diminishing. Mostly gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft prevail across the Gulf at this time. For the forecast, the weak front will slowly move southeastward into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through early Mon, then weaken and dissipate through late Tue. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon night, then move slowly southeast and exit the basin Wed night. Fresh winds and slightly building seas will follow the front through mid week. Looking ahead, another weak front may enter the northern Gulf Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered strong convection continues over the northwestern Caribbean between eastern Honduras and Grand Cayman Island. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active near Jamaica. Weakening high pressure north of the area is supporting fresh trade winds over the north-central Caribbean where seas are 5 to 7 ft. The pattern supports moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, and gentle breezes with 1 to 3 ft over the northwest Caribbean. For the forecast, little change is expected into mid week. Building high pressure north of the area by late in the week will allow fresh to strong winds and locally rough seas to pulse off Colombia starting Wed night. A weak cold front will stall over the Yucatan Channel Thu night. The high pressure will build behind the front will support moderate to fresh NE winds over the northwest Caribbean through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about the significant swell event in the central Atlantic. The two main features over the northwest Atlantic continue to be the 999 mb low pressure near 29N46W, and 1025 mb high pressure centered to the northwest of the low pressure near 36N63W. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting the strong to near- gale force winds and rough to very rough seas described in the Special Features section, encompassing the area north of 20N between 30W and 65W. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident off the coast of Florida, driven by the pressure gradient between the aforementioned 1025 mb high and a weak cold front moving through the southeastern United States. Moderate NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted elsewhere west of 70W within the ridge axis. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas in N swell are noted over the tropical Atlantic south of 20N and west of 35W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted east of 35W. Forecast for west of 55W, strong S winds will prevail offshore Floria and north of the Bahamas until a weak cold front moves off the Florida coast Mon morning. Ahead of this front, some thunderstorms are possible offshore northeast Florida. Strong southerly winds will redevelop Tue, ahead of another cold front that will move offshore Tue night. This front will reach a line from east of Bermuda to central Cuba by Thu morning. $$ Christensen