000
AXNT20 KNHC 302102
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Dec 31 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A 995 mb low is centered
near 31N42W. Strong to near-gale force winds cover the waters N 
of 27N between 28W and 52W, with rough to very rough seas of 12 
to 14 ft covering the waters north of 25N between 32W and 52W. 
The low will lifts north of the area through Tue, leaving an area
of fresh to strong SW winds and 10 to 13 ft seas north of 21N 
between 25W and 45W, and lingering 8 to 10 ft swell north of 20N 
between 20W and 50W. These winds and seas will diminish south of 
31N through Wed. The large swell may create hazardous rip current 
conditions for Puerto Rico and other areas in the northern Leeward
Islands. Refer to local weather advisories for more information.

For more details on the marine conditions, please refer to the 
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from near 05N08W to 05N12W. The ITCZ 
then continues from 05N12W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from from 01N to 06N between 25W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the NW Gulf with light to
gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the NW
Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a stationary front extending from Sarasota to 
the central Gulf will continue to weaken and dissipate late 
tonight into early Tue. Another cold front will move into the NW 
Gulf late tonight to early Tue, then move slowly southeast and 
exit the basin Wed night into early Thu. Moderate to fresh winds 
and slightly building seas will follow the front through mid week.
Looking ahead, strong high pressure and associated ridging will 
build in the wake of this front and prevail through Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate winds prevail in the central Caribbean with gentle to
locally moderate winds in the eastern Caribbean. Over the western
Caribbean, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft
range in the central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, large northerly swell to 8 ft will persist over
the Atlantic waters and passages of the Leeward and Windward 
Islands through tonight, then subside. High pressure centered 
north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds 
across the eastern and central Caribbean through Sat night, 
reaching strong speeds at night off Colombia Wed and Thu. The tail
of a cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel by late Thu 
and dissipate early Fri. The passage of this front N of the area 
will support the development of moderate to fresh NE winds in the 
NW Caribbean through Fri night, including the Windward Passage. 
Building high pressure in the wake of this front will tighten the 
pressure gradient on Sat, leading to strong wind speeds in the lee
of Cuba and the Windward Passage through Sun. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details about the 
significant swell event in the central Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 31N75W to central Florida.
Moderate to fresh winds are N of 30N within 60 nm east of the
front. Farther east, a 995 mb low is centered near 31N42W, with
associated cold front entering the waters near 31N36W to 23N39W,
becoming stationary to near Grenada. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted N of 21N within 600 nm east of
the front. Strong to near- gale winds are N of 27N between 28W 
and 52W, with fresh to strong winds elsewhere N of 21N between 26W
and 55W. Over the remainder of discussion waters N of 20N, gentle
to moderate winds prevail. S of 20N, Light to gentle winds 
prevail. Outside of the very rough seas, seas 8 ft or greater are 
found N of 18N between 30W and 60W. Elsewhere, seas of 4-7 ft 
prevail. 

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate NNE winds along with large
swell east of 60W associated with a deep low pressure system east
of the region will diminish this evening as the low moves farther
to the NE. However, swell in excess of 8 ft will persist east of 
60W through early Tue. A stationary front over the NE Florida 
offshore waters will dissipate tonight into early Tue. A stronger 
cold front is expected to move off the NE Florida coast Tue night,
reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Wed night into Thu 
morning, and weaken as it reaches from 31N55W to eastern Cuba Fri.
Looking ahead, a new cold front will come off the NE coast of 
Florida late Fri followed by strong to near gale-force winds and 
rough seas. The front is forecast to extend from Bermuda to the 
southern Bahamas offshore waters Sat morning and move east of 60W 
Sat night. 

$$
AL