000 AXNT20 KNHC 312106 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Jan 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A 988 mb low is centered north of the area near 36N41W. Associated cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N33W to 20N38W. Strong to near-gale winds are east of the front. Rough to very rough seas generated from this feature is impacting the central Atlantic waters. Seas of 12 to 14 ft covering the waters north of 24N and east of the front to near 30W. Seas of 12-13 ft are N of 29N west of the front to 48W. The low pressure will move little over the next couple of days, and will support N swell and seas of 12 to 14 ft north of 27N between 25W and 50W into Fri. For more details on the marine conditions, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over West Africa. The ITCZ extends from near 05N09W to 05N38W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 25N and 47W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Alabama SW to S Texas. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4 ft are W of the front. Moderate winds are over the NE Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas in the 1-3 ft range prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will slowly progress southeastward through Wed before exiting the basin early Thu. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds will occur behind the front off the coast of Texas this afternoon into early Thu, with fresh N winds developing across the northeastern Gulf tonight. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will then cover much of the basin Wed into early Thu. Looking ahead, another cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf early Fri, and move southeastward through the basin into this weekend. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas will occur in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail in the central Caribbean. In the eastern Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft are noted. Gentle winds and seas of 2-3 ft are over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and slight to moderate seas will occur across the basin through Wed. An increasing pressure gradient between ridging in the central Atlantic and a cold front moving southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico will lead to more widespread fresh NE winds across the Caribbean late Wed night through Fri morning. The cold front will enter the northwestern basin by early Thu and stall before dissipating Fri. Winds will pulse to strong speeds each night into Fri offshore of Colombia, through the Windward Passage, and downwind of Hispaniola and Cuba. Locally rough seas will be possible near strong winds. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE winds will develop across the northwestern and north-central Caribbean on Sat ahead of a strong front moving through the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about the significant swell event in the central Atlantic. High pressure of 1018 mb is centered near 31N61W. The pressure gradient between this feature and low pressure over the eastern United States is supporting moderate to fresh winds off the coast of Florida, where seas are in the 4-5 ft range. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 20N and W of 65W, where seas are in the 4-7 ft range. Farther east, a cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N33W to 20N38W. Strong to near gale force winds are N of 22N within 180 nm east of the front. Fresh to strong winds are N of 25N west of the front to 58W. Aside from the seas 12 ft or higher discussed in the special features section above, seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 20N between 30W and 52W. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere, with seas in the 4-7 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh SW winds will occur off the coast of Florida today ahead of a front moving off the east coast of the United States. Fresh to locally strong W to NW winds will occur behind the front tonight through Wed morning, generally north of 30N between 70W and 80W. The front will progress southeastward through Thu before weakening by late week. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will move off the coast of the southeastern United States on Fri, supporting strong to near gale- force winds and rough to very rough seas across most areas north of 26N into this weekend. $$ AL