000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS 
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
0405 UTC FRI SEP 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE AT 15/0300 UTC WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 18.4N 105.3W MOVING NW AT 5 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF 50 KT AND GUSTS TO 60 KT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
AND PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO 
INTENSIFY AND SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN OUTER RAINBANDS 
MAINLY S OF THE CENTER. LANE IS MOVING AROUND THE SW PERIPHERY 
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST... 
THREATENING THE BAJA PENINSULA.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 9N83W 10N90W 16N105W 16N115W 10N128W 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST BETWEEN 82W AND 
86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM 
S OF AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 100 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF 
FORECAST AREA PRODUCING SW WINDS OVER THE NW QUADRANT. SOUTH OF 
THE TROUGH THERE IS A MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WSW FROM AN 
ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO TO BEYOND 15N140W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS PRESENT N OF 20N. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF RIDGE HAS PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DUE TO ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE AND GOOD DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.

A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 13N122W REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY...EMBEDDED 
IN AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAVORABLE 
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW FROM 11N-15N AND BETWEEN 
120W-125. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

15-20 KT WINDS AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS FLOW S OF 
10N WEST OF 95W. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AT THE SURFACE IS N OF 
THE AREA AND PRODUCING MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS FROM 15N-22N 
WEST OF 120W. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE NW QUADRANT 
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

$$
MUNDELL