000
ABNT20 KNHC 052326
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms persists over 
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico in association with a broad area of 
low pressure that is interacting with a nearby weak front. 
Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant 
development of this system while it meanders over the northwestern 
Gulf and eventually merges with an approaching frontal system by 
late Friday or Saturday. Although tropical cyclone development is 
unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected to continue across portions of 
the northern Gulf Coast during the next day or so. Additional 
information on this system can be found in products issued by your 
local National Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
A gale-force, non-tropical area of low pressure centered a few 
hundred miles east of North Carolina is producing showers and 
thunderstorms with some signs of organization to the east of its 
center. This system could acquire some tropical or subtropical 
characteristics over the next day or two while it moves generally 
north-northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United 
States. The low is expected to move over cooler waters and become 
associated with fronts by early Saturday, and further development is 
not expected. Additional information on this system, including gale 
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located over the western Caribbean Sea is producing 
a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. 
Development is not expected before the system reaches Belize and the 
Yucatan Peninsula by early Friday. Some slow development is possible 
later this weekend after the system emerges over the southwestern 
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. 
Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the early part 
of next week while the disturbance moves slowly northwestward or 
northward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the 
Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm 
activity. Development is not expected due to strong upper-level 
winds while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph 
during the next several days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online 
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart