000
ABNT20 KNHC 061746
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system and 
weak frontal boundary over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico remain 
disorganized.  The low is expected to be absorbed by the front and 
lose definition by tonight or on Saturday, and therefore tropical 
cyclone development is not expected.  Regardless of development, 
heavy rainfall is expected to continue and possibly cause flash 
flooding across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next 
day or so.  Additional information on this system can be found in 
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast 
Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
An intensifying low pressure system located several hundred miles 
east of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast continues to take on a 
non-tropical structure and is now producing winds to storm force.  
Subtropical development of this system is not expected while it 
moves north-northeastward at 15 to 20 mph offshore the northeastern 
United States toward Atlantic Canada.  Additional information on 
this system, including storm warnings, can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of 
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  The 
wave is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, 
where it could then begin to interact with a frontal boundary.  A 
tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of 
next week while the system moves slowly northwestward over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity. 
Development, if any, should be slow to occur while the disturbance 
meanders through the early part of next week and then begins to 
move west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during 
the middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online 
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg