000
ABNT20 KNHC 081248 CCA
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

Corrected category for the 48 hour probability for AL92

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association 
with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf 
of Mexico. This system is forecast to drift slowly northwestward 
during the next couple of days, and environmental conditions are 
expected to become conducive for additional development. A tropical 
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the 
system moves generally northwestward and then northward near or 
along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas through the middle of the 
week. Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf Coast should 
closely monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be 
required for portions of the western Gulf coast later today or 
tonight. An Air-Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is also 
scheduled to investigate the system later today. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low 
pressure over the central tropical Atlantic continue to show some 
signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression 
could form while the system meanders over the central tropical 
Atlantic through Monday and then begins to move generally westward 
at around 10 mph through the rest of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of 
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move very 
little during the next couple of days until it potentially interacts 
with a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of 
Africa on Monday. Environmental conditions thereafter are expected 
to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a 
tropical depression could form by the middle or latter part of the 
week while the system begins moving slowly west-northwestward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin