000
ABNT20 KNHC 230543
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of 
organization with a broad area of low pressure located over the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea.  Environmental conditions appear 
favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical 
depression or storm is likely to form over the next couple of days 
as the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea 
and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico where additional 
development is possible. 

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy 
rains over portions of Central America during the next several days. 
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of 
Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this 
system. Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally 
northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the 
northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also closely monitor 
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located between western Africa and the Cabo Verde 
Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. 
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form during the middle to latter part of this week while it moves 
westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin