000
ABNT20 KNHC 290522
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Isaac, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Azores, 
and on Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Atlantic 
Ocean.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles 
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a 
tropical depression will likely form during the early or middle part 
of this week while the system moves toward the west and then 
northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the western 
Caribbean Sea in a couple of days.  Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a 
tropical depression could form around the middle part of this 
week.  This system is expected to move northwestward into the Gulf 
of Mexico during the latter portion of this week, and interests in 
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should 
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch