000
ABNT20 KNHC 051122
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on 
Hurricane Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic 
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually 
becoming better organized.  Development of this system is expected, 
and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or 
on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf 
of Mexico.  By early next week, the system is forecast to move 
faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf 
of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely.  Interests on 
the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the  Florida Peninsula, the Florida 
Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of 
this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could 
occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over 
much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on 
Monday or Tuesday.  Some development of this system is possible 
thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the 
eastern tropical Atlantic.  The system is expected to move near or 
over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests 
there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly