000
ABNT20 KNHC 161728
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Recent satellite surface wind data showed the circulation associated 
with a disturbance over the tropical Atlantic Ocean has become less 
defined since yesterday.  The trough of low pressure continues to 
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  This system is 
forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and 
environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual 
development during the latter part of this week. A tropical 
depression could form as the system moves near the Leeward and 
Virgin Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are 
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual 
development is possible if the system stays over water while it 
moves slowly northwestward toward Central America. Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of 
Central America and southern Mexico later this week and into the 
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky