000
ABNT20 KNHC 170502
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure 
located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remain 
disorganized.  Environmental conditions appear only marginally 
conducive for slow development as the disturbance moves quickly 
westward to west-northwestward around 20 mph, passing near the 
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near the Greater 
Antilles over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are 
associated with a broad area of low pressure.  Some gradual 
development is possible over the next couple of days if the system 
stays over water while it moves slowly northwestward toward Central 
America.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is 
possible across portions of Central America and southern Mexico 
late this week and into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen