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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop off the coast of 
southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. After that time, 
environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for 
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
by the middle or latter portions of this week. The disturbance is 
forecast to meander near or just offshore the Mexican coast for much 
of the week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward, 
parallel to the coast of Mexico by this weekend. Regardless of 
development, this system is expected to contribute to heavy rainfall 
across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico already 
adversely affected by substantial rainfall last week, and interests 
there should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: 
Another area of low pressure in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is currently 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly offshore of 
southern Mexico. The system is forecast to move erratically through 
mid-week before drifting northward towards the southern Mexican 
coast, and environmental conditions appear conducive for additional 
development while the system remains offshore. Regardless of 
development, heavy rain is possible along most of the coast of 
southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Papin