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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
300 PM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Outlook issued to increase the probability of tropical 
cyclone formation for the disturbance near the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop off the coast of 
southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. After that time, 
environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for 
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
by the middle or latter portions of this week. The disturbance is 
forecast to meander near or just offshore the Mexican coast for much 
of the week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward, 
parallel to the coast of Mexico by this weekend. Regardless of 
development, this system is expected to contribute to heavy rainfall 
across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico already 
adversely affected by substantial rainfall last week, and interests 
there should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (96E): 
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have quickly become better organized 
during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are expected 
to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical 
depression could form as soon as tonight or tomorrow. This system is 
forecast to meander for the next couple of days before drifting 
northward towards the southern coast of Mexico, and interests there 
should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of 
development, heavy rain is possible along most of the coast of 
southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


Forecaster D. Zelinsky