000
WTNT80 EGRR 260533

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.09.2007

        TROPICAL STORM KAREN      ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N  40.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122007

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 26.09.2007  11.1N  40.2W     WEAK
 12UTC 26.09.2007  11.4N  43.1W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 27.09.2007  12.8N  44.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 27.09.2007  14.1N  46.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 28.09.2007  15.3N  48.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 28.09.2007  16.6N  49.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 29.09.2007  17.4N  50.9W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 29.09.2007  18.2N  52.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.09.2007  18.9N  53.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 30.09.2007  19.3N  54.4W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 01.10.2007  19.4N  55.4W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 01.10.2007  19.3N  56.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.10.2007  19.7N  57.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN   ANALYSED POSITION : 21.2N  95.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132007

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 26.09.2007  21.2N  95.0W     WEAK
 12UTC 26.09.2007  22.2N  95.4W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 27.09.2007  21.3N  95.5W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 27.09.2007  21.3N  96.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 28.09.2007  21.4N  97.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 28.09.2007  21.4N  97.0W     BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

  
             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  72 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 :  8.5N  13.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 29.09.2007   8.5N  13.3W     WEAK
 12UTC 29.09.2007   9.6N  15.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.09.2007  10.3N  17.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 30.09.2007  11.1N  20.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.10.2007  11.8N  24.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.10.2007  11.5N  26.7W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 02.10.2007  12.5N  29.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 
 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 260533