000
WTNT80 EGRR 101715

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.08.2008

             HURRICANE HERNAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 125.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092008

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 10.08.2008  17.4N 125.8W    STRONG
 00UTC 11.08.2008  19.0N 128.0W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 11.08.2008  20.0N 130.2W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 12.08.2008  19.7N 132.4W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 12.08.2008  19.3N 134.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 13.08.2008  18.7N 135.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 13.08.2008  18.1N 137.7W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 14.08.2008  17.0N 139.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.08.2008        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

        TROPICAL STORM KIKA       ANALYSED POSITION :  9.5N 161.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012008

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 10.08.2008   9.5N 161.1W     WEAK
 00UTC 11.08.2008  10.2N 164.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 11.08.2008   9.6N 166.4W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 12.08.2008  10.6N 169.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 12.08.2008  11.2N 171.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.08.2008  12.2N 174.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.08.2008  12.6N 176.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 14.08.2008  BELOW TROPICAL STROM STRENGTH

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :
10.5N  43.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 10.08.2008  10.5N  43.4W     WEAK
 00UTC 11.08.2008  11.2N  44.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 11.08.2008  11.5N  46.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.08.2008  12.1N  48.9W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 12.08.2008  12.8N  51.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.08.2008  13.0N  54.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.08.2008  14.7N  56.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 14.08.2008  15.4N  58.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 14.08.2008  17.7N  60.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 15.08.2008  18.6N  62.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.08.2008  19.4N  66.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 16.08.2008  21.2N  68.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 16.08.2008  23.6N  71.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  12 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 10.6N  27.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 11.08.2008  11.6N  27.4W     WEAK
 12UTC 11.08.2008  10.8N  27.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 12.08.2008  12.2N  26.9W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 12.08.2008  13.8N  28.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.08.2008  15.2N  30.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.08.2008  14.8N  33.4W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 14.08.2008  14.3N  36.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 14.08.2008  14.3N  40.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 15.08.2008  14.7N  43.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.08.2008  14.1N  46.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 16.08.2008  14.4N  47.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.08.2008  15.8N  47.5W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 101715