000
WTNT80 EGRR 021800

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.09.2009

        TROPICAL STORM ERIKA      ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N  60.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062009

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 02.09.2009  17.3N  60.4W   MODERATE
 00UTC 03.09.2009  16.7N  62.3W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.09.2009  17.4N  64.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.09.2009  17.7N  67.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 04.09.2009        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE JIMENA     ANALYSED POSITION : 24.1N 112.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132009

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 02.09.2009  24.1N 112.1W   MODERATE
 00UTC 03.09.2009  26.8N 112.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.09.2009  27.6N 112.6W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.09.2009  27.4N 113.6W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 04.09.2009  28.1N 114.5W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 05.09.2009  BELOW TROPICAL STROM STRENGTH


             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 14.4N  22.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 04.09.2009  14.4N  22.1W   MODERATE
 00UTC 05.09.2009  15.3N  24.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.09.2009  16.3N  26.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.09.2009  17.4N  28.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.09.2009  17.8N  30.7W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.09.2009  18.1N  32.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 07.09.2009  17.9N  34.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 08.09.2009  17.9N  36.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.09.2009  17.6N  38.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 021659