000
WTNT80 EGRR 281800

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.08.2011

        TROPICAL STORM IRENE      ANALYSED POSITION : 40.2N  74.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092011

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 28.08.2011  40.2N  74.3W   INTENSE
 00UTC 29.08.2011  43.9N  71.8W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 29.08.2011  48.4N  68.0W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 30.08.2011  52.8N  62.7W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 30.08.2011 EXTRA-TROPICAL

        TROPICAL STORM JOSE       ANALYSED POSITION : 30.5N  65.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112011

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 28.08.2011  30.5N  65.7W     WEAK
 00UTC 29.08.2011  33.6N  65.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 29.08.2011        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  24 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 10.8N  26.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 29.08.2011  10.8N  26.1W     WEAK
 00UTC 30.08.2011  12.4N  29.3W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 30.08.2011  13.3N  33.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 31.08.2011  14.7N  36.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 31.08.2011  16.0N  40.2W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 01.09.2011  17.4N  43.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 01.09.2011  18.9N  46.6W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.09.2011  20.5N  49.0W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 02.09.2011  22.3N  51.2W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 03.09.2011  24.2N  52.6W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 03.09.2011  25.5N  54.6W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  72 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.8N  94.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 31.08.2011  13.8N  94.0W     WEAK
 00UTC 01.09.2011  14.5N  94.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.09.2011  15.2N  94.9W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 02.09.2011  15.5N  94.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 02.09.2011  15.9N  94.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.09.2011  15.7N  96.0W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 03.09.2011  15.0N  95.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 281714