000
WTNT80 EGRR 010600

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.10.2011

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILARY     ANALYSED POSITION : 23.6N 122.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092011

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 01.10.2011  23.6N 122.2W     WEAK
 12UTC 01.10.2011  24.0N 123.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 02.10.2011  24.2N 124.3W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 02.10.2011        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE OPHELIA    ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N  62.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162011

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 01.10.2011  25.6N  62.8W    STRONG
 12UTC 01.10.2011  28.7N  63.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.10.2011  32.5N  62.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 02.10.2011  36.9N  61.7W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.10.2011  42.3N  60.9W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 03.10.2011  47.2N  57.5W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.10.2011        EXTRA-TROPICAL

        TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE   ANALYSED POSITION : 23.6N  46.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172011

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 01.10.2011  23.6N  46.3W     WEAK
 12UTC 01.10.2011  24.5N  48.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.10.2011  25.4N  49.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.10.2011  26.3N  51.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.10.2011  26.6N  53.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.10.2011  26.6N  55.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.10.2011  26.2N  57.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2011  27.0N  58.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.10.2011  27.8N  59.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 05.10.2011  29.4N  58.4W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.10.2011  31.5N  56.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 06.10.2011  35.0N  52.9W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 07.10.2011  38.5N  50.5W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  72 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 11.0N  99.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 04.10.2011  11.0N  99.4W     WEAK
 12UTC 04.10.2011  11.7N 101.1W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 05.10.2011  12.6N 102.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 05.10.2011  13.2N 104.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.10.2011  14.7N 106.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.10.2011  15.8N 107.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.10.2011  16.9N 108.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 010502