000
WTNT80 EGRR 151800

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.10.2012

             HURRICANE PAUL       ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 114.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162012

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 15.10.2012  16.9N 114.8W     STRONG
 00UTC 16.10.2012  19.1N 114.1W     STRONG      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.10.2012  22.1N 112.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 17.10.2012  23.2N 112.2W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 17.10.2012  24.2N 111.6W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 18.10.2012  26.3N 113.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 18.10.2012  27.2N 114.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 19.10.2012        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE RAFAEL     ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N  65.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172012

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 15.10.2012  22.5N  65.6W    STRONG
 00UTC 16.10.2012  24.1N  66.0W    STRONG      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 16.10.2012  26.6N  65.5W    STRONG      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 17.10.2012  30.6N  63.8W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 17.10.2012  35.5N  60.8W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 18.10.2012  40.2N  55.7W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 18.10.2012        EXTRA-TROPICAL


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 151645