000
WTNT80 EGRR 071800

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.10.2013

        TROPICAL STORM NARDA      ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 120.6W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142013

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 07.10.2013  13.5N 120.6W     WEAK
 00UTC 08.10.2013  14.4N 122.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.10.2013  15.1N 123.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.10.2013  15.8N 124.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.10.2013  16.6N 125.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.10.2013  16.3N 127.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.10.2013  15.8N 127.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 11.10.2013        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 29.0N  85.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 07.10.2013  29.0N  85.1W     WEAK
 00UTC 08.10.2013  28.7N  83.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 08.10.2013  28.1N  82.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.10.2013  28.5N  81.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.10.2013        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  30 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 :  9.0N  28.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 09.10.2013   9.5N  28.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.10.2013   9.9N  29.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 10.10.2013  11.3N  30.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.10.2013  11.9N  33.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 11.10.2013  12.5N  35.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 11.10.2013  13.4N  37.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.10.2013  14.2N  40.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 12.10.2013  14.8N  42.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.10.2013  15.5N  44.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.10.2013  16.3N  46.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  90 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 13.0N 104.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 11.10.2013  13.6N 105.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.10.2013  14.6N 106.8W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 12.10.2013  15.3N 108.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 13.10.2013  15.8N 109.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.10.2013  16.7N 110.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 071653