000 WTNT80 EGRR 280600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.07.2014 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 143.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.07.2014 12.2N 143.3W WEAK 12UTC 28.07.2014 13.0N 144.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.07.2014 13.3N 146.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.07.2014 14.0N 147.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.07.2014 14.3N 148.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.07.2014 14.1N 148.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.07.2014 14.2N 149.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.07.2014 14.3N 149.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.08.2014 14.5N 150.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.08.2014 15.1N 150.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2014 14.6N 152.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE HERNAN ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 112.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.07.2014 19.1N 112.9W MODERATE 12UTC 28.07.2014 20.6N 115.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.07.2014 21.9N 118.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.07.2014 23.2N 120.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.07.2014 24.1N 122.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.07.2014 25.0N 123.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.07.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 15.1N 133.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.07.2014 15.1N 133.0W WEAK 12UTC 28.07.2014 15.0N 134.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.07.2014 15.0N 136.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.07.2014 15.0N 138.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.07.2014 14.5N 139.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.07.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 10.7N 158.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.07.2014 11.5N 158.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.07.2014 12.6N 158.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.07.2014 13.4N 159.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.07.2014 13.4N 159.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.07.2014 12.8N 159.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.07.2014 12.7N 159.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.07.2014 12.9N 160.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.08.2014 14.1N 161.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.08.2014 14.4N 162.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2014 15.2N 163.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2014 15.5N 164.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2014 16.2N 166.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 8.9N 35.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.07.2014 8.9N 35.7W WEAK 12UTC 29.07.2014 10.4N 37.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.07.2014 10.4N 41.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.07.2014 10.4N 44.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.07.2014 11.3N 47.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.07.2014 11.6N 50.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.08.2014 12.7N 53.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.08.2014 13.4N 56.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.08.2014 14.6N 59.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2014 16.5N 62.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 9.9N 176.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.07.2014 9.9N 176.8W WEAK 12UTC 30.07.2014 11.7N 178.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.07.2014 12.7N 179.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.07.2014 13.4N 178.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.08.2014 14.1N 176.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.08.2014 14.3N 174.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2014 15.0N 171.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2014 15.5N 169.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2014 16.2N 167.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.1N 148.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.07.2014 14.1N 148.9W WEAK 00UTC 31.07.2014 14.2N 149.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 31.07.2014 14.3N 149.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.08.2014 14.5N 150.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.08.2014 15.1N 150.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2014 14.6N 152.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.1N 121.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 31.07.2014 12.1N 121.9W WEAK 00UTC 01.08.2014 12.6N 123.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 01.08.2014 13.9N 125.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2014 15.0N 126.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2014 16.3N 128.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.08.2014 17.0N 130.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 280554