000 WTNT80 EGRR 291800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.07.2014 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN ANALYSED POSITION : 23.2N 120.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.07.2014 23.2N 120.3W WEAK 00UTC 30.07.2014 23.7N 122.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.07.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 12.6N 147.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.07.2014 12.6N 147.2W WEAK 00UTC 30.07.2014 12.7N 147.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.07.2014 12.7N 148.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.07.2014 13.0N 148.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.07.2014 13.5N 149.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.08.2014 14.0N 150.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.08.2014 14.4N 151.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2014 14.6N 153.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2014 14.9N 155.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.08.2014 15.1N 157.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2014 15.5N 159.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.08.2014 16.0N 161.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2014 17.6N 163.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.4N 161.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.07.2014 13.4N 161.6W WEAK 00UTC 30.07.2014 13.5N 162.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.07.2014 12.4N 163.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.07.2014 11.8N 164.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.07.2014 11.3N 166.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 34.6N 73.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.07.2014 35.9N 70.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.07.2014 40.0N 66.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.07.2014 45.6N 63.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.07.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.5N 45.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 31.07.2014 10.7N 46.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.07.2014 11.0N 49.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.08.2014 12.2N 51.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.08.2014 13.0N 55.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2014 14.5N 58.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2014 15.9N 62.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.0N 47.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 31.07.2014 11.0N 49.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.08.2014 12.2N 51.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.08.2014 13.0N 55.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2014 14.5N 58.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2014 15.9N 62.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.4N 122.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.08.2014 12.6N 122.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.08.2014 14.1N 124.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.08.2014 15.7N 126.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.08.2014 16.2N 128.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.08.2014 16.5N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2014 16.6N 130.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2014 16.5N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2014 15.7N 133.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 16.5N 130.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.08.2014 16.6N 130.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 04.08.2014 16.5N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2014 15.7N 133.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 35.5N 50.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.08.2014 36.3N 50.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 04.08.2014 35.9N 50.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2014 35.5N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 12.9N 118.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.08.2014 12.8N 119.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.08.2014 12.9N 122.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 291654