000 WTNT80 EGRR 311800 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.07.2014 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.7N 150.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 31.07.2014 12.7N 150.4W WEAK 00UTC 01.08.2014 12.7N 151.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.08.2014 12.8N 152.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2014 12.6N 154.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2014 11.9N 156.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2014 11.0N 158.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2014 10.2N 160.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2014 10.0N 162.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.08.2014 10.7N 164.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2014 12.3N 166.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2014 13.5N 169.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 14.8N 171.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2014 16.5N 172.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 11.0N 133.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 31.07.2014 11.0N 133.9W WEAK 00UTC 01.08.2014 11.6N 135.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.08.2014 12.8N 136.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2014 11.4N 138.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2014 12.2N 141.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2014 11.9N 143.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.08.2014 12.7N 146.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2014 14.2N 149.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2014 14.8N 152.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2014 16.1N 155.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2014 17.7N 158.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 19.0N 161.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2014 20.1N 162.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 11.1N 50.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 31.07.2014 11.1N 50.7W WEAK 00UTC 01.08.2014 12.0N 53.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.08.2014 13.2N 56.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 02.08.2014 14.2N 59.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2014 15.9N 62.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2014 17.5N 65.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.08.2014 19.2N 69.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.08.2014 21.2N 72.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2014 23.3N 74.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2014 26.0N 76.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2014 29.6N 76.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 33.2N 75.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2014 36.0N 72.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 12.6N 124.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.08.2014 13.4N 125.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.08.2014 15.2N 126.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.08.2014 15.2N 128.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2014 15.1N 130.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2014 15.4N 131.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2014 15.4N 132.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2014 14.7N 133.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2014 14.2N 135.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2014 13.4N 136.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 13.1N 138.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2014 13.1N 138.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.3N 113.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.08.2014 13.3N 113.1W WEAK 00UTC 03.08.2014 13.6N 115.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 03.08.2014 14.1N 116.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.08.2014 13.9N 118.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.08.2014 13.8N 119.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2014 14.2N 121.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2014 14.8N 123.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 15.8N 125.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2014 17.6N 127.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 311644