000 WTNT80 EGRR 030600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.08.2014 TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE ANALYSED POSITION : 10.6N 157.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.08.2014 10.6N 157.9W WEAK 12UTC 03.08.2014 9.7N 159.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2014 9.5N 161.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2014 10.1N 163.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2014 11.1N 166.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2014 12.2N 169.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 13.3N 171.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2014 14.5N 174.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2014 15.9N 176.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2014 17.0N 179.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2014 17.4N 178.3E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2014 17.8N 176.2E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2014 19.0N 174.3E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY HURRICANE ISELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 130.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.08.2014 15.2N 130.3W MODERATE 12UTC 03.08.2014 15.6N 132.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.08.2014 15.9N 134.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2014 16.0N 136.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2014 16.2N 138.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2014 15.9N 139.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2014 15.9N 142.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2014 15.7N 144.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 07.08.2014 16.0N 147.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2014 17.0N 150.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2014 18.3N 154.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2014 20.1N 157.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2014 23.1N 161.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 71.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.08.2014 19.0N 71.7W WEAK 12UTC 03.08.2014 21.3N 71.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 10.8N 145.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.08.2014 10.8N 145.2W WEAK 12UTC 03.08.2014 12.8N 147.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2014 13.4N 150.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2014 14.2N 153.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.1N 113.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.08.2014 13.1N 113.6W WEAK 12UTC 03.08.2014 13.2N 115.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2014 12.9N 116.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.08.2014 12.7N 120.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2014 12.3N 122.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2014 12.2N 124.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 12.5N 127.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2014 13.0N 130.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2014 13.9N 132.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.08.2014 14.8N 136.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2014 15.6N 139.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2014 15.7N 142.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.08.2014 15.8N 145.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 27.9N 74.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.08.2014 27.9N 74.0W MODERATE 00UTC 05.08.2014 32.0N 73.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2014 35.5N 72.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 06.08.2014 37.8N 69.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2014 40.1N 65.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 07.08.2014 42.7N 60.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.08.2014 45.2N 55.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2014 46.3N 49.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2014 47.4N 42.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2014 46.6N 32.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 030507