000 WTNT80 EGRR 160600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.08.2014 TROPICAL STORM KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 122.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.08.2014 18.0N 122.2W MODERATE 12UTC 16.08.2014 18.1N 124.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.08.2014 18.3N 126.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2014 18.3N 129.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.08.2014 17.9N 131.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2014 17.5N 133.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2014 17.0N 134.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.08.2014 16.9N 136.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.08.2014 17.3N 138.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2014 16.5N 140.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.08.2014 16.6N 141.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2014 17.0N 141.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.08.2014 17.0N 142.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 12.7N 140.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.08.2014 12.7N 140.1W WEAK 12UTC 16.08.2014 13.6N 139.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2014 14.1N 140.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2014 14.8N 140.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.08.2014 15.1N 140.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2014 14.9N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2014 14.7N 140.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2014 14.3N 140.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.08.2014 15.1N 138.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.08.2014 16.5N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2014 16.6N 141.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2014 17.0N 141.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.08.2014 17.0N 142.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.2N 157.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.08.2014 11.2N 157.7W WEAK 00UTC 17.08.2014 11.1N 158.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2014 10.7N 159.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.08.2014 11.2N 159.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2014 11.3N 160.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2014 12.0N 161.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2014 12.3N 162.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2014 12.8N 162.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2014 12.8N 163.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.2N 38.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.08.2014 13.2N 38.3W WEAK 00UTC 19.08.2014 14.0N 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2014 14.9N 42.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2014 15.4N 45.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.08.2014 16.6N 50.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2014 17.7N 55.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2014 18.0N 60.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.08.2014 18.8N 64.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.8N 113.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.08.2014 14.8N 113.6W WEAK 00UTC 19.08.2014 15.8N 115.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.08.2014 16.5N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2014 18.7N 118.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.08.2014 19.6N 118.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.08.2014 21.8N 119.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.08.2014 24.0N 119.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.08.2014 26.2N 120.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 17.9N 129.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.08.2014 17.9N 129.8W WEAK 12UTC 20.08.2014 17.6N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2014 16.4N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2014 14.8N 124.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.08.2014 14.5N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 10.9N 97.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.08.2014 10.9N 97.9W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 160426