000 WTNT80 EGRR 240600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.08.2014 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 72.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.08.2014 22.3N 72.1W WEAK 12UTC 24.08.2014 23.4N 73.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2014 24.1N 73.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2014 24.7N 73.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2014 25.4N 72.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2014 26.7N 73.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.08.2014 29.1N 74.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 27.08.2014 30.7N 75.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 28.08.2014 32.0N 74.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.08.2014 33.8N 72.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.08.2014 35.0N 69.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2014 35.7N 66.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2014 36.1N 61.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 133.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.08.2014 17.8N 133.1W MODERATE 12UTC 24.08.2014 17.9N 131.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 17.8N 129.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2014 17.6N 128.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2014 17.3N 128.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2014 16.4N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2014 15.0N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 127.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.08.2014 24.7N 127.1W MODERATE 12UTC 24.08.2014 25.7N 128.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 26.1N 129.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.08.2014 26.6N 130.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.08.2014 27.3N 132.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2014 28.2N 135.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2014 29.9N 137.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2014 31.8N 139.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2014 32.8N 141.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2014 33.9N 142.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2014 36.0N 141.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.08.2014 38.7N 139.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2014 40.5N 136.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 108.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.08.2014 15.2N 108.7W MODERATE 12UTC 24.08.2014 15.6N 110.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.08.2014 16.3N 112.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2014 17.0N 114.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2014 18.3N 116.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.08.2014 19.7N 119.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2014 20.6N 121.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2014 21.7N 124.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.08.2014 22.6N 127.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.08.2014 23.6N 129.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.08.2014 25.3N 131.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.08.2014 27.7N 132.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.08.2014 29.4N 132.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.2N 146.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.08.2014 13.2N 146.8W WEAK 12UTC 24.08.2014 14.1N 145.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.08.2014 15.4N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.08.2014 15.4N 142.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.08.2014 15.2N 140.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.08.2014 14.3N 139.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.08.2014 14.0N 137.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.08.2014 12.9N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 17.3N 57.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.08.2014 18.4N 58.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.08.2014 19.6N 59.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT THE FORMAT OF THIS BULLETIN WILL BE CHANGING SOON TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 240451