000 WTNT80 EGRR 110600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.09.2014 TROPICAL STORM ODILE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 103.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.09.2014 15.5N 103.8W WEAK 12UTC 11.09.2014 15.3N 105.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2014 15.3N 106.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2014 15.6N 106.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2014 16.3N 107.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2014 16.9N 108.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2014 17.7N 109.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2014 18.7N 111.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2014 20.6N 113.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2014 22.3N 114.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2014 24.0N 116.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2014 25.4N 117.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2014 26.9N 118.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 14.3N 119.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.09.2014 14.3N 119.3W WEAK 12UTC 11.09.2014 15.5N 119.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2014 16.6N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2014 16.6N 116.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.0N 126.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.09.2014 13.8N 126.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2014 15.3N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2014 16.3N 125.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2014 16.3N 126.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2014 15.5N 125.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2014 15.4N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2014 14.3N 124.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2014 14.7N 122.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2014 15.1N 119.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2014 16.1N 117.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2014 16.3N 115.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 16.5N 38.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.09.2014 16.5N 38.0W WEAK 12UTC 12.09.2014 17.9N 39.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2014 19.3N 41.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2014 20.7N 44.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2014 22.0N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2014 22.6N 47.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2014 23.4N 48.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2014 24.6N 50.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2014 25.5N 51.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2014 26.3N 52.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2014 27.6N 53.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 11.8N 25.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.09.2014 11.8N 26.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2014 13.3N 29.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2014 14.4N 33.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2014 15.8N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2014 17.4N 38.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2014 19.2N 39.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2014 20.7N 41.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2014 22.1N 43.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 26.0N 82.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.09.2014 26.0N 83.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2014 26.2N 85.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2014 26.6N 88.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2014 27.6N 89.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2014 27.9N 89.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2014 28.4N 87.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2014 29.0N 85.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.3N 94.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.09.2014 10.8N 95.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2014 12.1N 98.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2014 13.1N 101.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 16.09.2014 13.7N 103.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2014 14.6N 106.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 110526