000 WTNT80 EGRR 100600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.10.2014 TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 22.9N 60.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.10.2014 22.9N 60.9W WEAK 12UTC 10.10.2014 24.6N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2014 25.4N 63.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2014 28.0N 63.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2014 30.5N 63.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2014 34.1N 61.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2014 37.0N 54.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2014 38.8N 44.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2014 40.9N 33.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2014 45.5N 22.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.10.2014 EXTRA-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 11.7N 136.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.10.2014 12.3N 137.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.10.2014 12.6N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2014 13.8N 142.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2014 14.4N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2014 15.0N 146.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2014 15.0N 147.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2014 15.1N 149.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 16.3N 58.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.10.2014 16.0N 59.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.10.2014 16.3N 60.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2014 17.4N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2014 18.4N 64.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2014 20.2N 65.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2014 22.1N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2014 24.3N 69.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.3N 43.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.10.2014 14.3N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2014 15.7N 43.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2014 15.6N 44.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.10.2014 15.9N 46.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2014 15.8N 47.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2014 15.5N 48.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 12.8N 93.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2014 12.8N 93.0W WEAK 00UTC 15.10.2014 12.5N 94.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2014 12.8N 95.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.10.2014 13.3N 97.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 100526