000 WTNT80 EGRR 171617 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.10.2014 TROPICAL STORM ANA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 154.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.10.2014 15.3N 154.0W MODERATE 00UTC 18.10.2014 16.4N 156.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2014 17.5N 158.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2014 18.6N 159.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2014 19.2N 160.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2014 19.3N 162.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2014 19.5N 164.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2014 19.9N 166.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2014 20.2N 167.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2014 20.7N 168.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2014 21.4N 168.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2014 22.3N 169.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2014 23.4N 169.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE GONZALO ANALYSED POSITION : 29.8N 66.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.10.2014 29.8N 66.7W INTENSE 00UTC 18.10.2014 32.4N 65.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2014 35.7N 63.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.10.2014 41.1N 58.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2014 47.9N 50.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 20.10.2014 53.4N 38.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 20.10.2014 POST-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 15.5N 98.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.10.2014 15.5N 98.0W WEAK 00UTC 18.10.2014 15.1N 98.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.10.2014 15.4N 98.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2014 15.6N 98.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2014 15.3N 99.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2014 15.4N 98.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2014 14.9N 98.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.7N 98.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.10.2014 14.7N 98.3W WEAK 00UTC 22.10.2014 14.1N 98.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2014 14.3N 98.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2014 14.1N 99.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2014 13.9N 99.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 33.4N 28.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.10.2014 33.4N 28.2W MODERATE 00UTC 22.10.2014 34.7N 29.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.10.2014 35.9N 30.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2014 36.6N 31.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2014 36.6N 30.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 171617