000 WTNT80 EGRR 220417 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.10.2014 TROPICAL STORM ANA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.1N 166.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022014 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.10.2014 22.1N 166.2W WEAK 12UTC 22.10.2014 22.8N 167.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2014 24.3N 167.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2014 25.5N 168.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2014 26.7N 170.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2014 28.0N 170.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2014 30.2N 168.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.10.2014 33.4N 165.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.10.2014 37.8N 159.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2014 43.8N 150.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2014 48.8N 146.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.10.2014 48.7N 149.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.10.2014 45.9N 143.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 19.8N 92.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.10.2014 19.7N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.10.2014 19.3N 92.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2014 18.8N 91.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 37.1N 71.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.10.2014 37.1N 71.6W WEAK 00UTC 23.10.2014 41.3N 69.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.10.2014 40.9N 73.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2014 39.0N 72.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2014 39.5N 67.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2014 42.2N 62.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2014 44.5N 59.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 9.5N 128.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.10.2014 9.5N 128.6W WEAK 12UTC 24.10.2014 10.2N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2014 10.5N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2014 11.1N 128.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2014 11.7N 130.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2014 12.3N 130.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2014 12.1N 132.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2014 12.3N 133.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2014 12.5N 134.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 10.8N 119.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.10.2014 10.8N 119.6W WEAK 00UTC 25.10.2014 11.6N 119.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2014 12.3N 120.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2014 13.0N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2014 13.0N 122.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2014 13.5N 124.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2014 13.2N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2014 12.6N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 26.3N 73.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.10.2014 27.1N 71.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.10.2014 29.3N 68.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2014 31.6N 64.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2014 33.2N 58.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 11.2N 93.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.10.2014 11.2N 93.0W WEAK 12UTC 26.10.2014 10.5N 93.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2014 10.8N 92.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2014 11.1N 92.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.10.2014 11.8N 91.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 220417