000 WTNT80 EGRR 290418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.07.2015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.8N 130.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.07.2015 16.8N 130.9W WEAK 12UTC 29.07.2015 16.2N 133.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.07.2015 15.9N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.07.2015 15.8N 139.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.07.2015 15.3N 142.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.07.2015 15.1N 144.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.08.2015 13.9N 147.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.08.2015 13.4N 150.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2015 13.3N 153.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2015 12.5N 156.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2015 12.0N 159.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2015 12.0N 161.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2015 12.3N 164.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 37.6N 61.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.07.2015 37.6N 61.5W WEAK 12UTC 29.07.2015 39.5N 58.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.07.2015 42.8N 55.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.07.2015 45.4N 52.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 31.07.2015 46.1N 51.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.07.2015 45.5N 46.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.08.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 7.6N 122.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.07.2015 8.2N 123.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.07.2015 8.9N 126.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.07.2015 10.2N 128.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.07.2015 11.5N 131.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.08.2015 12.4N 134.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.08.2015 13.0N 137.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2015 13.4N 139.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2015 13.7N 142.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2015 14.4N 144.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2015 14.8N 146.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2015 15.2N 147.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 29.8N 78.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.07.2015 29.8N 78.4W WEAK 12UTC 30.07.2015 31.1N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.07.2015 31.8N 77.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.07.2015 33.7N 76.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.08.2015 34.7N 74.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.08.2015 38.0N 68.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.08.2015 40.9N 59.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.08.2015 42.8N 51.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.08.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 29.0N 87.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.08.2015 29.2N 88.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.08.2015 30.2N 87.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.08.2015 31.7N 86.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.08.2015 32.0N 84.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 290418