000 WTNT80 EGRR 290418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.08.2015 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 73.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.08.2015 19.0N 73.0W WEAK 12UTC 29.08.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE IGNACIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 144.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.08.2015 14.7N 144.9W STRONG 12UTC 29.08.2015 15.6N 146.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2015 16.6N 147.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2015 17.5N 148.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2015 18.9N 149.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2015 20.4N 151.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2015 21.6N 152.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2015 22.7N 153.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2015 24.3N 154.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2015 25.7N 155.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2015 27.8N 156.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2015 29.2N 158.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2015 29.8N 159.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE JIMENA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 123.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.08.2015 12.2N 123.8W STRONG 12UTC 29.08.2015 12.3N 125.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2015 13.1N 127.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2015 14.0N 129.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2015 14.9N 132.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2015 15.5N 135.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2015 15.9N 137.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2015 16.3N 139.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2015 16.7N 141.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2015 16.9N 142.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2015 16.8N 143.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2015 16.7N 144.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2015 16.8N 144.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM KILO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 172.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP032015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.08.2015 17.8N 172.1W MODERATE 12UTC 29.08.2015 18.1N 173.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.08.2015 18.7N 175.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.08.2015 19.4N 177.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2015 20.3N 178.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2015 21.6N 178.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2015 23.1N 179.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2015 24.2N 179.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2015 24.7N 179.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2015 24.6N 179.7E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2015 24.6N 178.8E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2015 24.5N 177.9E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2015 24.7N 176.7E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 12.0N 18.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.08.2015 12.8N 19.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2015 14.2N 22.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2015 15.3N 24.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.09.2015 17.1N 25.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.09.2015 18.6N 27.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2015 19.7N 29.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2015 20.0N 31.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2015 20.3N 32.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2015 20.6N 33.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2015 21.2N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 23.8N 80.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.08.2015 24.2N 81.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 31.08.2015 25.7N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 31.08.2015 27.5N 83.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2015 29.0N 83.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2015 30.6N 83.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2015 31.8N 83.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2015 33.0N 83.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2015 33.9N 83.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2015 36.4N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.3N 113.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2015 13.7N 114.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.09.2015 14.7N 116.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2015 16.1N 117.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2015 17.7N 119.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2015 19.8N 119.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2015 21.9N 119.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 290418