000 WTNT80 EGRR 161618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.09.2015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 43.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2015 13.8N 43.5W WEAK 00UTC 17.09.2015 15.2N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2015 16.2N 43.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2015 17.0N 44.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2015 17.4N 45.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2015 17.8N 46.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2015 18.2N 47.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2015 18.5N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2015 19.0N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2015 19.7N 51.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2015 20.9N 54.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2015 21.3N 55.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2015 22.7N 58.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.0N 32.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2015 12.0N 32.7W WEAK 00UTC 18.09.2015 12.9N 33.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2015 13.7N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2015 14.9N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2015 16.4N 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2015 17.7N 40.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2015 18.5N 41.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2015 19.2N 42.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2015 19.3N 42.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2015 18.9N 42.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2015 18.6N 41.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 16.8N 173.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2015 16.8N 173.3W WEAK 00UTC 19.09.2015 18.2N 172.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2015 19.0N 171.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2015 19.7N 171.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2015 21.4N 170.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2015 22.8N 170.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2015 24.5N 170.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 22.09.2015 26.4N 171.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2015 28.3N 172.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 16.5N 118.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.09.2015 16.5N 118.2W WEAK 00UTC 20.09.2015 17.7N 118.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2015 17.8N 118.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2015 19.4N 119.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2015 21.6N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2015 23.2N 120.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2015 26.2N 118.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 20.4N 152.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.09.2015 20.7N 152.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 22.09.2015 22.0N 153.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 161617