000 WTNT80 EGRR 201618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.09.2015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05C ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 174.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP052015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2015 19.2N 174.0W WEAK 00UTC 21.09.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM IDA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 44.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2015 17.0N 44.3W WEAK 00UTC 21.09.2015 18.4N 46.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2015 19.8N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2015 20.8N 49.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2015 21.2N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2015 20.8N 49.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2015 20.2N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2015 19.7N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2015 19.6N 50.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2015 20.0N 50.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2015 20.0N 52.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2015 20.5N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2015 21.0N 54.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 23.1N 113.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2015 23.1N 113.9W WEAK 00UTC 21.09.2015 25.6N 113.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2015 28.3N 111.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 10.3N 143.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.09.2015 10.3N 143.6W WEAK 12UTC 22.09.2015 10.8N 144.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2015 11.3N 145.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2015 12.3N 145.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2015 13.7N 144.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2015 15.1N 145.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2015 16.0N 145.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2015 16.9N 145.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2015 17.8N 144.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2015 18.4N 145.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.7N 133.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.09.2015 13.1N 133.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2015 13.9N 133.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2015 14.1N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 32.4N 75.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.09.2015 32.4N 75.0W WEAK 00UTC 25.09.2015 32.5N 75.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2015 33.1N 75.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2015 33.6N 74.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2015 32.2N 73.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 201618