000 WTNT80 EGRR 291618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.09.2015 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.2N 70.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.09.2015 26.2N 70.9W WEAK 00UTC 30.09.2015 26.1N 71.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2015 25.6N 72.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2015 25.2N 73.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2015 24.7N 74.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2015 24.9N 74.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2015 26.0N 74.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 28.0N 74.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2015 30.8N 73.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2015 35.3N 74.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2015 38.6N 78.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 05.10.2015 37.8N 79.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 05.10.2015 41.2N 77.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM MARTY ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 101.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.09.2015 16.6N 101.3W MODERATE 00UTC 30.09.2015 16.3N 101.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2015 16.2N 103.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2015 16.2N 104.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2015 16.3N 106.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2015 16.1N 107.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2015 16.3N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 16.1N 109.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 17.5N 109.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 19.2N 108.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 21.1N 107.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 23.8N 107.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIALA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 161.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP062015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.09.2015 15.5N 161.1W WEAK 00UTC 30.09.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 28.1N 94.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.09.2015 28.1N 94.2W WEAK 00UTC 30.09.2015 27.5N 93.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2015 26.6N 92.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 14.0N 122.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2015 13.7N 122.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 02.10.2015 14.0N 124.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2015 15.0N 124.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 14.8N 126.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 14.5N 126.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2015 14.4N 128.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 14.3N 128.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 14.2N 129.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 14.8N 130.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 25.3N 57.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2015 25.2N 56.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 02.10.2015 25.5N 55.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2015 25.5N 53.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 26.3N 53.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 26.9N 54.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 27.3N 54.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2015 26.9N 54.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2015 26.3N 56.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 25.7N 57.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.6N 161.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2015 13.1N 160.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2015 13.7N 158.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2015 14.3N 158.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2015 15.3N 156.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2015 16.9N 155.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2015 18.8N 154.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2015 20.1N 154.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 291618