000 WTNT80 EGRR 051617 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.10.2015 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08C ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 174.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP082015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2015 12.0N 174.9W WEAK 00UTC 06.10.2015 12.1N 176.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 12.7N 179.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 13.6N 178.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 14.2N 174.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2015 14.7N 171.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2015 13.8N 169.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.10.2015 13.1N 167.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2015 13.4N 164.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2015 12.5N 164.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2015 13.9N 160.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE JOAQUIN ANALYSED POSITION : 34.6N 64.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2015 34.6N 64.9W STRONG 00UTC 06.10.2015 36.6N 63.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 38.4N 59.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 39.9N 53.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.10.2015 41.1N 45.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2015 41.9N 36.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.10.2015 43.6N 27.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2015 45.3N 21.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2015 46.3N 17.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2015 48.4N 13.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2015 52.4N 11.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2015 POST-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM OHO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 154.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP072015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2015 14.0N 154.7W MODERATE 00UTC 06.10.2015 14.4N 154.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 15.2N 153.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 16.7N 151.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2015 19.4N 150.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2015 22.5N 148.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2015 25.7N 147.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2015 29.9N 145.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2015 35.6N 139.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 15.7N 121.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2015 15.7N 121.7W WEAK 00UTC 06.10.2015 17.1N 121.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2015 18.9N 121.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 22.0N 61.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 09.10.2015 23.0N 61.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2015 24.7N 62.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2015 26.4N 62.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2015 28.4N 60.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2015 29.9N 58.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2015 31.5N 55.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 051617