000 WTNT80 EGRR 221618 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 22.10.2015 HURRICANE OLAF ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 145.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.10.2015 12.8N 145.7W MODERATE 00UTC 23.10.2015 13.8N 146.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.10.2015 15.2N 145.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2015 16.7N 144.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2015 18.1N 143.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.10.2015 19.1N 143.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2015 19.8N 142.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2015 20.5N 141.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2015 21.5N 141.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.10.2015 22.7N 141.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2015 23.9N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2015 24.9N 140.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.10.2015 25.2N 140.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE PATRICIA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 103.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.10.2015 14.4N 103.2W STRONG 00UTC 23.10.2015 15.7N 105.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2015 17.3N 105.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.10.2015 19.8N 105.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.10.2015 23.6N 103.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.10.2015 23.9N 98.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2015 28.6N 97.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2015 28.6N 95.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2015 29.5N 94.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2015 29.4N 94.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2015 30.0N 93.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 28.4N 24.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.10.2015 28.4N 24.8W WEAK 00UTC 23.10.2015 25.3N 25.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.10.2015 24.5N 24.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2015 22.7N 24.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 36.4N 54.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.10.2015 36.4N 54.8W WEAK 12UTC 24.10.2015 40.3N 48.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.10.2015 48.3N 35.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.10.2015 51.5N 27.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 26.10.2015 52.3N 19.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2015 54.7N 14.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.10.2015 POST-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 11.2N 123.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.10.2015 11.4N 122.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2015 12.1N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2015 12.4N 120.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2015 12.9N 119.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2015 12.5N 118.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2015 12.3N 118.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.10.2015 11.3N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 15.4N 105.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.10.2015 15.4N 105.5W WEAK 00UTC 26.10.2015 15.6N 104.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2015 16.7N 104.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2015 16.6N 105.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2015 16.5N 106.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 35.3N 55.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.10.2015 36.8N 54.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.10.2015 39.2N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2015 40.8N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2015 45.2N 42.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 221618