000 WTNT80 EGRR 230418 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.10.2015 HURRICANE OLAF ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 146.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.10.2015 14.0N 146.2W MODERATE 12UTC 23.10.2015 15.0N 145.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2015 16.3N 145.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.10.2015 17.4N 144.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.10.2015 18.4N 143.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.10.2015 19.2N 142.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2015 20.0N 142.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2015 20.9N 141.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2015 22.0N 141.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2015 23.3N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2015 24.2N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.10.2015 24.7N 141.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.10.2015 25.2N 144.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE PATRICIA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 105.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202015 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.10.2015 15.7N 105.0W MODERATE 12UTC 23.10.2015 17.5N 105.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.10.2015 19.8N 105.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.10.2015 24.2N 106.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.10.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 32.0N 57.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.10.2015 32.0N 57.5W WEAK 12UTC 25.10.2015 35.4N 55.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.10.2015 39.0N 53.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2015 40.8N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2015 43.0N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2015 46.6N 38.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.10.2015 50.0N 30.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.10.2015 53.9N 24.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.10.2015 POST-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 27.0N 97.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.10.2015 27.6N 96.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.10.2015 30.3N 94.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.10.2015 29.8N 94.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.10.2015 29.6N 92.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.10.2015 30.3N 91.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.10.2015 33.1N 90.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.10.2015 38.2N 87.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.10.2015 42.8N 78.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 230418